Wonder why gas prices are so high? Or why food is so expensive at the grocery stores? Or why San Jose homes for sale, and homes all around the country are getting more, and more expensive? First home prices were up because of supply and demand issues and not enough construction. Then, home prices were worsened by Covid.
Now, here we are in 2022 and it’s inflation. Many folks have heard of and been through a recession, but many people do not know what Inflation is because they’ve never lived through or experienced high inflation before. I wrote this article to give San Jose home sellers and first time home buyers including those that are in the surrounding and other real estate markets a better understanding of what inflation is and why you are experiencing what you're seeing at the pump.
So what is inflation? Inflation usually happens due to loosened Federal policy making. Historically after times of war, recession, or any great event (such as Covid) the Federal government will loosen its reserve requirements and lower interest rates in order to help the economy stay healthy and strong.
However, there’s a downside to this which economists call the Phillips Curve. Too much money circulating in the economy, low unemployment and consumer spending force’s prices to go up, and prices will continue to climb without intervention from the US government. To counter inflation the Federal Reserve has already started to increase interest rates.
In 1980 the interest rates went as high as 18% to turn inflation around. Although I don’t think rates will get this high they could continue to increase possibly to 7% or higher because the CPI is at an unprecedented high. The CPI Consumer Product Index is how inflation is measured and is at 8.3% down from a 40 year high of 8.5% earlier this year. This gauge shows how much consumers pay for a market basket of consumer goods. That car you purchased last year would’ve cost you 8.3% or about $1600 more had you bought it today.
Inflation is also showing up in gas prices and the housing sector due to a long period of low interest rates, and laxed federal regulations. During the 2008 Great Recession the federal government had to lower interest rates in order to help boost the economy and reduce the high unemployment rate to get the country out of a great recession, and it worked! It worked a little too well I think…
We successfully got out of the recession but when it was time for the Fed to increase interest rates to slow down and prevent the rate of inflation from passing it’s normal 2% rate and keep the nation at a perfect balance they hesitated. So, interest rates stayed at a historic low for a decade, from 2012 until early 2022 rates have been between 2 and 4%. This is an unprecedented amount of time as interest rates have never been this low. Last year interest rates were as low 2.9% now they are at 5-6%.
As a result, new construction sales have softened, loan applications have decreased but are starting to pick back up as borrowers are recovering from the rate hike shock, and are having this now or never mentality. Appraisals and home values have started to soften and even decrease in some areas. Construction is still behind, and there are not enough homes built to accommodate everyone. We just haven’t been building enough homes year over year to fulfill supply and demand. Home values will be affected depending on how high the interest rates get. Since nobody wants high prices the government’s strategy is to bring us out of this inflation without plunging us into a recession.
Tips borrowers can do is not wait for rates to go up when purchasing a home. Also, if you are ready to become a homeowner go for it! Don’t try to wait for the market as there’s little to no benefit in lower home values with higher interest rates. Lock in your interest rate with your lender as soon as possible. Pay off any small credit card debt so that you’re not paying higher interest on your credit cards because when interest rates go up credit cards are usually the first to be affected. This will also help your ratios when applying for a mortgage. San Jose sellers and sellers in any real estate market that have been sitting on the fence about selling their home or plan on selling at the end of the year; real estate is a seasonal business.
Although less buyers are entering into the market this summer due to the higher interest rates summer is still and has always been the best time to sell your home. Homes traditionally sell faster during the summer and for more money. Waiting means possibly higher interest rates which equates to less borrowers, less borrowers equates to possibly lower values, and less dollars for sellers.
When buying a home make sure you have a knowledgeable and experienced San Jose realtor like Capri Ndikum at Citi One Realty. In these challenging times it’s always good to have a real estate agent who has had experience in Selling San Jose real estate during different times in the market. With two decades of experience, Capri can help navigate you through challenging, and changing markets and help you to achieve your goals whether you are a first time home buyer, or a seller wanting to list and sell luxury homes in San Jose, the Bay Area, Sacramento Metro areas, or the Central Valley.
Capri Ndikum is the broker/owner of Citi One Realty and has local real estate expertise in the San Jose Bay Area and surrounding areas. Because of her unique experience and years in the field Capri was recently selected by Redfin as a top financial and real estate expert! See the article we we're featured in and contact us if you have any questions: Inflation and House Prices: What Homebuyers, Sellers, and Renters Need to Know
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